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[EWSoccer64]

The Situation -
A Semi Pro-Western government in Lebanon fell in the last month, and the terrorist group/militia/political party Hezbollah is preparing to take over. 
An underemployed man sets himself on fire in Tunisia to protest corruption, autocracy, and lack of economic opportunity (so it is said, he is dead so we cannot ask him). And the Tunisian government, a moderate, pro-Western government that has been a faithful US ally falls.  Tunisia has had lots of long term European influence, and is less likely to be steered into radicalism than other places.
Now protests are spreading throughout Arab countries - but only ones that are supporting the US and the West. 
Jordan - Protests.   Most likely the King, who is a moderate and popular among the populance, can use his influence to keep things under control.
Algeria - Protests and another young man making himself into a flambe.
Yemen - Serious protests, people getting killed.   And Yemen already has rebellious tribes and a serious Islamic Terrorist Problem.
Egypt  - At least three people have been reported to have set themselves on fire.   Islamic Brotherhood - already illegal - members and leaders have been rounded up.  (How successfully no ones knows).   Four days of street protests.   Army called in. 
Worrisome signs - Western reporters (like cnn) report that the Islamic Brotherhood would recieve at least 30-35% of any free vote if taken now.     Reports of Police stripping off their uniforms and joining the protesters.  Army vehicles reportedly under attack by mobs without firing to defend themselves.   Protests are organized - and not just by facebook or twiiter.   Pamphlets have been printed and distributed with the normal revolutionary tactics - Meet up in groups away from the demonstration place and then move in a coordinated manner at a set time to meet up in the main plaza at a set time.    A protest site goes from empty to 10,000 people in a few minutes that way, minimizing the opportunity for police to disperse it more peacefully.   Protesters given printed instructions on slogans and chants.   banners appearing in English, not Arabic. So on and so forth.   

Now Let us look at the history of revolutions -  The US "Revolution" is more properly categorized as a civil war so we will leave this out.
Russia and Iran are the Revolutions that are applicable examples here.   In both cases, the revolutions enjoyed comparative widespread Urban support from a wide variety of groups/parties/people with greviences against the regime.   In both cases, the early, widespread more democratic groups were supplanted by the more (most) radical extremists.   One can even see such a pattern in the French Revolution.........
     There is every reason to believe that these "arab Revolutions" will follow the same pattern.   And no real reason to believe otherwise.  Tunisia has been much more heavily influenced by Europe, and is much more dependant upon it, so it has a chance to escape that fate.   Egypt?   The only choices Egypt has if the Mubarak government fails completely is between an outright military dictatorship or an unstable government to be supplanted by a radical islamic one.

Why are we not seeing such protests taking place in Iran, in Syria, and their ilk?   In 1982, a massive protest took over a Syrian city.   The old President for Life Assad, the father of the current President for Life, sent in the tanks with machine guns blazing.   The minimum estimate I ever read was a death toll of 10,000.   And Syria does not have the international press present to chastise the government and report on the wrong doings of the secret police, etc.     The press is restricted, and any reporter there knows that to report the truth is risking their lives.   Iran had its wave of protests over the last fraudulent elections.   They were beaten (and sometimes raped) into submission.

If the Mubarak government in Egypt falls rapidly, then Egyptians will end up with less freedom and less opportunity for personal happiness and success than they have now.  It will also doom the entire (broken) Middle East peace process with Israel. 

[EWSoccer64]

The latest tactic by President Mubarak of Egypt is rather clever -
Pull the police back to their stations and let the rioters and looters run around unhindered.
Now, people who have anything to protect are staying home, guarding their homes and shops.   And thinking that having squads of police on every block wasn't so bad after all.
And if the chaos gets worse, there is "ample" justification for the army to actually move in and restore order.   At least enough justification so that the issue becomes more murky.

And who is going to lose if Mubarak stays in power?   The USA, for one, since it will be seen that we not only did not try to help one of our best allies in Africa, but actually may have tried to help subvert his regime.   Isn't that interference in another country?  Exactly what we are being accused of all the time?  And our other allies will look around and see just how well the USA supports our friends, and may decide that being a friend of America is not worth much.

[EWSoccer64]

The scenes at the Cairo airport are just one reminder of the situation in Iran a bit more than 30 years ago.   So is Jimmy Carter getting up and weighing in on the issue.   The President who "lost Iran" is now giving advice to the President who is going to be labled as having "lost Egypt".   And it looks like the outcome will be the same.   Remember, jimmy Carter believed that Ayatollah Khomeni was a moderate.   
Reminds you of those people who described Mao and Castro as "agrarian reformers", eh?

[EWSoccer64]

 
From the BBC.    Notice how low the median age is.   Under 18 years old in the case of Yemen.

Country  Unrest Index*  Corruption  Poverty %  Age**  Literacy 
Sources: *Shoe-Thrower's Index from the Economist, Transparency International 2010 corruption index (higher number = greater corruption), World Bank, CIA World Factbook, UN (** Median age)
 
Yemen
 86.9
 146
 41.8
 17.9
 61
 
Libya
 71
 146
 n/a
 24.2
 88
 
Egypt
 67.6
 98
 16.7
 24
 66
 
Syria
 67.3
 127
 n/a
 21.5
 n/a
 
Saudi Arabia
 52.8
 50
 n/a
 24.9
 n/a
 
Algeria
 51.3
 105
 22.6
 27.1
 73
 
Jordan
 50.3
 50
 14.2
 21.8
 92
 
Tunisia
 49.4
 59
 7.6
 29.7
 78
 
Morocco
 48.2
 85
 19
 26.5
 56
 
Bahrain
 37.7
 48
 n/a
 30.4
 91
 
Iran
 n/a
 146
 n/a
 26.3
 82
 

[Left Foot]

The scenes at the Cairo airport are just one reminder of the situation in Iran a bit more than 30 years ago.   So is Jimmy Carter getting up and weighing in on the issue.   The President who "lost Iran" is now giving advice to the President who is going to be labled as having "lost Egypt".   And it looks like the outcome will be the same.   Remember, jimmy Carter believed that Ayatollah Khomeni was a moderate.   
Reminds you of those people who described Mao and Castro as "agrarian reformers", eh?

You might want to read a little history. Iran was lost when Mohammad Mosaddeq was ousted by the CIA in favor of the Shah at the behest of big oil. Paying the Shah billions to keep the oil flowing AND destroy the opposition through a massive U.S. backed secret police force just didn't pan out. Took many many years and many stupid foreign policy decisions by both sides of the aisle to "lose Iran." In many ways, it seems like the best and the brightest are still having a very difficult time with our multi-polar world order. Things almost seemed easier in the old bi-polar world where your country was either pro-US or a damn communist sob. Would you have put pressure on Mubarak earlier to be a bit more progressive? Would you have actively pumped more money and intelligence support into Mubarak's Egypt to help maintain a massive police state to quell any regime change and especially go after the Muslim Brotherhood? Interesting to know what would have had to have happened to not "lose" Egypt.

[EWSoccer64]

The scenes at the Cairo airport are just one reminder of the situation in Iran a bit more than 30 years ago.   So is Jimmy Carter getting up and weighing in on the issue.   The President who "lost Iran" is now giving advice to the President who is going to be labled as having "lost Egypt".   And it looks like the outcome will be the same.   Remember, jimmy Carter believed that Ayatollah Khomeni was a moderate.   
Reminds you of those people who described Mao and Castro as "agrarian reformers", eh?

You might want to read a little history. Iran was lost when Mohammad Mosaddeq was ousted by the CIA in favor of the Shah at the behest of big oil. Paying the Shah billions to keep the oil flowing AND destroy the opposition through a massive U.S. backed secret police force just didn't pan out. Took many many years and many stupid foreign policy decisions by both sides of the aisle to "lose Iran." In many ways, it seems like the best and the brightest are still having a very difficult time with our multi-polar world order. Things almost seemed easier in the old bi-polar world where your country was either pro-US or a damn communist sob. Would you have put pressure on Mubarak earlier to be a bit more progressive? Would you have actively pumped more money and intelligence support into Mubarak's Egypt to help maintain a massive police state to quell any regime change and especially go after the Muslim Brotherhood? Interesting to know what would have had to have happened to not "lose" Egypt.

Actually, Lefty, you should read a bit more history.  While the Mosadeq operation was conducted, haphazardly, by the CIA and MI6, it was more of a nudge and wink than anything else.   Mosadeq's communist ties have been known - and publised for a long time.   You probably believe that the Rosenbergs and Klaus Fuchs were all innocent, don't you?   And no, the US Intelligence agency was not involved in SAVAK's comparatively light repression of the Iranian people.  (compared to the current operations).  It was involved in having listening stations and intel gathering stations on Iran's northern border, in cooperation with Iranian Intel.   You remember who was north of Iran, don't you?
     Jimmy Carter sent a US Air Force Major General to Iran to tell the Iranian generals that the US would not support them in supporting the Shah.   Jimmy Carter listen to someone who told him that Khomeini was really a moderate, and not against womens rights.   Jimmy Carter sat in the White House doing nothing when the hardliners took over Iran and then took US diplomats hostage.   Yes, he finally authorised and personally approved the detailed resuce plan.   Which was an ignominous failure.  (just like Carter's entire presidency).
    About Egypt?   Egypt is going to fall to the hardliners.   Probably be a bunch of blood spilled before it is over, too.    And you will be saying that Muslim Brotherhood is better than Mubarak, just like you are not saying that the Shah was better than the Ayatollahs.   
      What I would have done not to lose Egypt?  Are you asking if I were Mubarak or if I were Obama?   If I were Obama, I would not have gone around the Middle East belittling the USA, to start with.   Prestige by Association, don't you understand?   Then I would have - say last year - Approached Mubarak about instituting a five year plan.   Revise the constitution, to take effect in five years.   Strong Execuative President with powers over the military, foreign policy, and judicial appointments.
   Set up instituting the new constitution and democracy on a staged, tiered basis.   After six months, start with local elections for municipal councils.   Have appointed Mayors.   After 1 more year, have elections for mayors and for the regional councils.  After 1 more year, elections for half of Parliment and for Rgional Governors.   After one more year, remainder of Parliment elected.   (always keep Parlimentary elecitons staggered).     After a total of 5 years, national elections for a new President (after the constituiton is ratified. )
   SImilar staged inmplementation of a free press and the break up of the national TV and Radio network.   All the while continue to enfore stringet laws against mixing religion and politics, and tough treason laws.   ALso enforce libel and slander laws in the media, and set up special courts (temporarily) for these offenses.
    During this period, start breaking up the government monopolies in cigarettes, alcohol, oil, and so on into smaller companies, and then start selling shares to the employees of the companies.   Have a max limit of 1% per person or entity on share holding in all Egyptian publicly traded companies for 10 years.
    Continue to outlaw Islamic Brotherhood and other radical Islamic organizations.   Go after them hard, and demonize them. 

The reason why this could have worked?   Mubarak is really old.   An approach like this could have made him into an Ataturk, rather than the latest version of the Shah.