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[EWSoccer64]

In Iowa.

Tongiht, it looks like Romney, Santorum and Ron Paul are tied in first place, Newt "Smartest Man in Politics" Gingrich is in fourth, Rick "Big Bucks" Perry is in fifth, and Michelle "Screech" Bachman is in sixth.   Huntsman, who is barely a Republican, barely registers at 1% to bring up the rear.

Winners tonight are Romney, whose campaign has been playing down expectations.
Santorum, who without a top tier finish would be a dead fish.
Ron Paul, whose Libertarianism is offsetting to many, is a big winner because of his big showing.

Losers -
Gingrich, whose bleeding continues.
Perry, who still has lots of money, but whose support has been fading ever since he entered the race.
Bachman is dead.  CPR has failed.  Iowa is her grave. 

One thing that is going to be kicked about in the media is a lower than expected turnout at the caucuses than last time - among longstanding Republicans.   There were lots of independants and even Democrats who crossed over and re-registered to be able to participate in this years caucuses.   Ron Paul undoubtedly caused some of this.   But then, he was involved last time too.
One explanation that the media is going to miss is that much of the Republican community simply has not chosen their favorite as yet.   Many would be satisfied with "any of the above" rather than see Obama have a second term.  Even Ron Paul.   And the high rate of interest from Dems and Indies in the Republican nominating process show that many of them prefer someone else to Obama, too.  So this snippet could be very, very good news for the Republicans in the fall.

Looking ahead -
Romney will win New Hampshire handily.
Ron Paul will be down in the single digits, bringing him down to Earth.
Huntsman must finish in the top 3, or his family will stop wasting the family fortune in supporting his old school.
Santorum will do well as the anti-Romney, evangelical candidate, with strong social conservative credentials.
Newt knows he cannot win, but now he has to have a respectable finish or his efforts in South Carolina will be hurt.
Perry is betting on South Carolina know, he will do disasterously in New Hampshire.
Predicition - Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry.

And that will be the end of Huntsman.

South Carolina will be a race between Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich for first place.   Romney needs to finish in the top 3.


My take on the candidates -
While any would be better than Obama -

Romney - has a history of success in business and politics.  Has a national organization in place from the last cycle, and has been strengthening it.  Baggage - Romenycare socialized medicine in Massachussets, bribery incidents (that preceded him) in the Salt Lake Olympics, held more liberal views in the past on abortion and other issues.   Unkown factor - He is a Mormon.   The unkown is how that will play out.   For certain, it will be a big source of funding.   But there are many "Christians" who are violently allergic to the LDS.  (Including my liberal, democratic voting, 80 year old mother in law who adores Obama).
Personally, I do not hold "Romneycare" against Romney.  That was what the citizens of Massachussets wanted, and that is what he gave them.   They still like it.  It does not show a lack of core values on his part, it shows that he can be an effective leader in a hostile enviroment.

Gingrich - a successful politician and political strategist.  Very intelligent and understands politics better than any other politician on the national stage.   Baggage - two divorces.  Change on key issues.   Ad with Pelosi promoting belief in Man Made Global Warming.  The fiasco of impeaching President Clinton.  His unwavering belief in his own cleverness.   The phrase "too clever for his own good" was invented for him.   The sanfu of his carrying a good point to an illogical extreme - sending US Marshalls to arrest federal judges to compel them to explain themselves to Congress is such a point.

Santorum - He is articulate, has a track record of conservative positions.   Baggage - He could not win reelection to the Senate from his own state of Pennsylvania.   So there is no guarantee that he could bring the state into the Red if he were the VP nominee.  He must use the tea party because he has no national organization of his own.  His views - taken one at a time - have something to offend almost everyone in the nation.  Till tonight, was regarded as a very light weight candidate.

Huntsman - Think of a Rockerfeller Republican from the 1970s, and that describes him pretty well, except that he is also a Mormon.
Bachman died tonight, so the only question is where her support will go.

Perry - A very successful governor, whose state is doing well.   Has a history of getting Dems to agree with him.  Social Conservative.  Can raise ALOT of money.
Weaknesses - Makes George Bush look articulate.   Comes from Texas, which alienates alot of liberals.  Most of the non-Southernors in the USA think a Southern accent denotes a ten point IQ drop.  Texas will go Republican with or without Perry on the ticket.  So Perry will not be under consideration for the VP slot.   But without a win or a strong second place showing in South Carolina, Perry is dead.


Best Guess, and only a Guess at this point - Romeny with Santorum as the VP on the Republican ticket.    And only choosing from the Presidential candidates for the VP slot.

Hawaii, California, New York, Massachussetts, DC, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland will all go for Obama, even if he died a week before the election.   Blacks will vote for Obama by the standard 95%. 
Texas, Alaska, the MidWest, New Hamspshire, Maine and the South will vote for the Republican candidate.
Up in the air - Ohio, Inidiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Colorado, Wisconsin, West Virginia. 
Right now, I only see 2 of the "up in the air" states going for Obama.  But it is a long way to the election, and a lot can happen.

[EWSoccer64]

The conservative talking heads on the radio are busy talking up Santorum today, a week ago they were dismissing him.
As expected, Bachman left the field.
As expected Perry vows to fight on threw South Carolina.

Santorum will see some of his support bleed off, I suspect, as they head south after New Hampshire.
In 2008, the Democratic race was dominated by the ABC campaign - Anyone But Clinton.
This year, it looks like the Republican campaign will be dominated by the Anyone But Romney campaign, which at this point looks destined to fail.   But will it weaken Romney enough, divide the Republicans enough, to give Obama a victory?

[Left Foot]

The conservative talking heads on the radio are busy talking up Santorum today, a week ago they were dismissing him.
As expected, Bachman left the field.
As expected Perry vows to fight on threw South Carolina.

Santorum will see some of his support bleed off, I suspect, as they head south after New Hampshire.
In 2008, the Democratic race was dominated by the ABC campaign - Anyone But Clinton.
This year, it looks like the Republican campaign will be dominated by the Anyone But Romney campaign, which at this point looks destined to fail.   But will it weaken Romney enough, divide the Republicans enough, to give Obama a victory?

It could come down to whether the religious right hates gay folks more than Mormon cultists. Close call that!

[EWSoccer64]

The conservative talking heads on the radio are busy talking up Santorum today, a week ago they were dismissing him.
As expected, Bachman left the field.
As expected Perry vows to fight on threw South Carolina.

Santorum will see some of his support bleed off, I suspect, as they head south after New Hampshire.
In 2008, the Democratic race was dominated by the ABC campaign - Anyone But Clinton.
This year, it looks like the Republican campaign will be dominated by the Anyone But Romney campaign, which at this point looks destined to fail.   But will it weaken Romney enough, divide the Republicans enough, to give Obama a victory?

It could come down to whether the religious right hates gay folks more than Mormon cultists. Close call that!

But everyone who values America dislikes the socialist, anti-American agenda of the Progessives more than they try to number the amount of angels who dance on the head of a pin.   That is the difference.   While 98% of Blacks, 95% of Communists, 87% of Socialists, 99% of Union Leaders will vote the straight Democratic ticket, the vast majority of Republican and Conservative  voters will vote for Romney/Gingrich/Perry/Santorum  rather than sqaunder their votes on a Don Quixote third party candidate.

It is telling about Obama that his advocates - who are rather few on the ground, publicly - view the potential discord among the Conservatives as a better factor for his re-election than anything he has accomplished.