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lastplanet

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Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« on: September 03, 2013, 08:30:09 AM »

Hi,

NKSoccerFan and I have worked all summer to enter all the tournament data and I spent the last 3 weeks getting all the names pretty much (I hope) sorted out.  I now have some draft ratings and team analyses for CPs to look over.  These are DRAFT, and I'm hoping CPs will look over the teams they know and alert me to any errors in the match data.  You can click on a team name (after you click on a rating table) and it'll take you to a pdf for the team.  On the 2nd page of that pdf are all the games for the team in my match database.  You can PM me corrections or email to lastplanetranking@gmail.com

DRAFT 2013 boys ratings
Take a look and let me know errors that you see in the match data.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/31164092/2013%20Ranks/index.html

Some things to keep in mind for these draft files:
* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).

* Once the fall league data comes in, the ratings will change a bit.  1) new teams that didn't play summer will appear and 2) team rosters stabilize. 

* The tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore.  The final version won't include teams that have not played in the last 3 months, but I included them here in order to ferret out teams that changed names without changing their roster.

* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables.  You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file.  Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.

* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age.  I won't be rating the B02s past this stage.  I start with U12s when games are 11v11.

* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.

* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts.  There were many name changes and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.

--LP
« Last Edit: January 08, 2014, 10:28:56 AM by lastplanet »
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2013, 08:26:59 AM »

I've updated the draft ranks with corrections that WA and OR folks have sent in.  It's here:

http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/2013/09/draft-2013-strength-ratings.html

One big change.  I scale all teams to the median WA-OR U13 team.  It doesn't change how you use the ratings since only the DIFFERENCE in rating matters.  But now you can easily compare across ages and find comparable strength teams in different age groups.  Also if you put your team in the wrong age group, it doesn't change the team's strength rating.

I'll work next week on getting all the fall league matches entered.  It might be a couple weeks before I get that data into the analyses.  More teams and more head-banging trying to match cryptic names with teams and clubs.

 :drinks:

LP
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2013, 11:51:03 AM »

Another update now that I have the first 1-2 games of the fall leagues: RCL, PSPL, OPL, D-III, D-VI, NPSL, PML

http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/2013/09/draft-2013-strength-ratings.html

I'll do a little clean-up now that I have a good guess at some of the "unknown" teams that used a cryptic name in a tourney.  Then will update the blog with 2013-2014 tables and update the match-predictor to use the 2013 ratings.

I'm still futzing with scaling the ratings.  Right now I am scaling all teams to the median U13 team---since by U13 I have a year of data so the median U13 is pretty stable.  I'm experimenting with a rating that looks a bit more like a chess rating (ranges from 500 to 2500 or so).  Looks better to me and easier to remember.  I still have some more work to do to get my ranks to scale to U13 at Jan 1 (or something like that) rather than the median at the current date.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2013, 12:41:31 PM by lastplanet »
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goldengoal

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2013, 12:41:24 PM »

nice work
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goldengoal

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2013, 12:50:22 PM »

LP- who does the girls rankings?
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2013, 01:30:21 PM »

AllForOne maintains all the West Coast G01 match data and I run it through my code.  NKSoccerFan and I entered both boys and girls tournament data, but the next step is to create a file 'team-resolver.csv' that links the names in the tournament data to a specific team.  That is a big job and I only have time to do that for the boys.  You can see examples by going to any of the boys folders here:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/qymld1uet1lqds1/7pp5jF2c9Y
That file 'team-resolver.csv' is a kicker.  It took me 2 hrs a day for 2 weeks to get it done for the boys.  There is a bit of web research involved since teams will use many variants for their name: club + coach, club + nickname, nickname only, club only and club + color. It is hit or miss whether the age is included and teams often play up in summer or in a mixed age group. Only every so often, do you get lucky and the team used their 'official' name (club age color/letter/name).   Though it did seem to get better this year with more teams and tournaments listing a complete team name.
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goldengoal

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2013, 02:27:39 PM »

thats crazy- must be a CP
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2013, 08:58:00 PM »

The boys 2013 rankings have now been moved over to the blog.  Fall leagues for the teams added to tables.  Some improved formatting for the team analyses (when you click a team name).  Match Predictor is not updated to 2013 data yet.  That's still run off the 2012 data.

http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com

Next up is to add the WCDA North Pacific and Far West Regional North league.
http://www.westerncda.com/schedules/index_E.html
http://2013-northwestfwrl.affinitysoccer.com/tour/public/info/accepted_list.asp?tournamentguid={D29A032C-97B2-4148-B363-C516E3094E27}
which help rank the WA against OR teams better.
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2013, 09:35:25 AM »

New update posted yesterday with the weekend games, but I mucked things up a bit with entering the Sept-Oct PSPL and OPL games.  And didn't notice for about 8 hrs. Thanks to those that alerted me, and I think it should be fixed now.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com

I don't have the B02 ratings listed on the main page, but they are still there.  I did not take into account that B02s play some 9v9 and some 11v11 games (such as when they play up).  It is easy enough to do, but we didn't note whether the matches were 9v9 verus 11v11 when entering the data....  Anyhow if you want to see them, go here:
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/ratings.html

I also updated the match predictor to run off the new 2013 ratings:
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/2013/05/match-predictor.html

Next to do: Get the league standing links up.

--LP
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NKSoccerFan

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2013, 09:51:51 AM »

New update posted yesterday with the weekend games, but I mucked things up a bit with entering the Sept-Oct PSPL and OPL games.  And didn't notice for about 8 hrs. Thanks to those that alerted me, and I think it should be fixed now.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com

--LP

B97 PSPL - WSPL results don't appear to be there.  Classic 1 & Classic 2 are ok.



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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2013, 10:23:35 AM »

B97 PSPL - WSPL results don't appear to be there.  Classic 1 & Classic 2 are ok.
Ah crud. Thanks for catching that.  I fixed one bug and created another.  This affects B96s and B95s, too.
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2013, 12:49:22 PM »

OK, I think the database is fixed.  Fingers crossed.  All the individual team analyses and tables have been remade.

-LP
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2013, 10:41:20 PM »

Update for last week just posted.
* added last weekend's games
* added u15/16 Kick in the Grass
* added Inland-Copa Spring league (had missed that last year somehow)

Note the strong DIII teams are getting down-weighted because that league doesn't report true scores.  It caps the GD at 5.  In my next update, I will drop the DIII matches with a GD of 5.  Better no data than the wrong data.

--LP
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justadad

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2013, 12:04:06 PM »

Appreciate the effort and the results.  Question...after a weekend at NWCL, I noticed that a team get penalized for not running up the score against lessor teams
while the 13-0 beating rewards a team in the rankings.  I recognize that it is impossible to tell when a coach is deliberately holding down the score but capping the goals for if the differential exceeds 7 or 8 makes a little sense to me.  Thought?
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2013, 10:18:08 PM »

Appreciate the effort and the results.  Question...after a weekend at NWCL, I noticed that a team get penalized for not running up the score against lessor teams
while the 13-0 beating rewards a team in the rankings.  I recognize that it is impossible to tell when a coach is deliberately holding down the score but capping the goals for if the differential exceeds 7 or 8 makes a little sense to me.  Thought?

I've gone back and forth on this one (with myself).  You are correct that not running up the score penalizes a team but capping scores really messes up the strength estimates.  I did tried it and the predictive performance of my models declined.  The other thing I tried was to not count the goals for at all if the GD was 7 or 8 (in other words replace the GF with NaN or missing).  But that also made for worse predictive performance.  Another idea was to not count games against mis-matched opponents (big strength difference) but that leads to less data and the info on who can 'cream' who is actually vital to getting the top to bottom ranks.

I decided in the end that I have no good way to deal with this.   At least the rank is affected more by the average over 8-10 games so any one game where they 'let up on the throttle' won't hurt them for long.

At some point, I want to look at predicted GF against the strength differential of the two teams.  I want to understand how to model coaches' strategies in these lopsided games.  I've observed that different coaches have different willingness to run up the score.  Some put the brakes on with a GD of 4 or 5 while others don't until the GD is 10+ (or at all).  I'm pretty sure that the solution will have to be team specific for that reason.  But I also think that the estimate of a team-specific 'throttling' tendency will have high uncertainty and thus not add much.  That's a funny thing about these predictive models.  You might know something is going on, but unless it is well-behaved and well-estimated, you just add noise to your predictions.
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justadad

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2013, 09:02:14 AM »

I suppose, too, that a lot of this problem resolves itself more and more each year as the weaker players drop and competition concentrates.
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2013, 02:17:30 PM »

Update posted.
* added last weekend's games
* added PSPL Inland Copa dev league (some B02s are there)
* various match corrections emailed to me (thx!)
* DIII caps the GD at 5.  If a DIII game has a GD of 5, then I set the larger score to NaN ---since I do not know what the score actually was.  If this affects your team, you can sent me corrections.
* I had dropped some Sept OPL games due to a bug that resurfaced from 2 weeks ago.  Got that fixed (again).
* "Where's my team?"  They have to have 8 games to show up on the WA or OR pages.  Look for them in the "All teams" page.

--LP
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2013, 08:39:11 AM »

Cranberry Cup coming up end of November in Woodinville.  This is usually a good tournament for helping rank mid-tier PSPL vs NPSL teams.  Hopefully some more PSPL teams will play.  So far it looks mostly NPSL, but a couple PSPL teams have signed up in the last week.

http://www.northshoreselect.org/Tournaments/

Boys Teams (Nov 20)
U11 - NSC Barca B02, NSC Fuego B02, Westside Titans (???), Crossfire Select B02 Johnson, Storm King Lightning
U12 - FC Edmonds Riptide B01, NSC Vortex B01, Storm King Vipers B01, Seattle United NE B01 Blue
U13 - Crossfire Select B00 Button, Crossfire Select B00 Greenwalt, FC Edmonds Fury, Fuerza FC, Goal Rush (rec gold), NSC Dynamo B00, NSC Impact B00, Lake Hills Fury B00, RSA Elite B00 Diamondbacks
U14 - NSC Thunder B99, NSC Fusion B99, Crossfire Select B99 Yerxa, Vancouver Island Wave
U15 - NSC Gunners B98, NSC Legacy B98, Mukilteo Rush B98 Lions, TBSC Arsenal B98 (???), FC Edmonds Boo Yahs B98
U16 - WS Barca B97, MCT B97 (Mukiteo rec team), Coastal FC, NSC Celtic B97
U17 -
U18 - NSC Fusion B95, NSC Revolution B95, Newport FC Spartans, Silver Lake Hurricanes FC B95

« Last Edit: November 20, 2013, 04:11:30 PM by lastplanet »
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2013, 11:45:15 AM »

Update posted 11/12.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com
* added last two weekends of games
* added Showcase of Champions from the summer
* added Far West Regional league games that are not duplicates of RCL D1 games
* added Surf Cup, District 6 Fall Kick-off, EMFC Adidas Cup, Lighthouse Cup
* DIII caps the GD at 5.  If a DIII game has a GD of 5, then I set the larger score to NaN ---since I do not know what the score actually was.  If this affects your team, you can sent me corrections.
* Been futzing with the navigation on the blog.
* Due to adding Surf Cup, more CAS teams appear on the "All Teams" ratings, but many of these have only 3-4 games so are not good rankings.  Very few CAS/CAN teams are in the database, so the "all teams" page is in no way a West Coast list.  It a "WA-OR teams with a few of the strong CAS/CAN teams" list.

--LP
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Barca

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2013, 01:54:26 PM »

Boys Teams (Nov 8)
U13 - Crossfire Select B00 Button, Crossfire Select B00 Greenwalt, FC Edmonds Fury, Fuerza FC, Goal Rush (???), NSC Dynamo B00, NSC Impact B00, Lake Hills Fury B00, RSA Elite B00 Diamondbacks

P.S.  Grr, "Gold Rush" is not an identifiable name! But I'm happy to see a huge improvement teams using identifiable names (club team-name age).   :drinks:

I believe "Goal Rush" is a NYSA Rec D1 team:
http://www.wsysad2.org/standings?action=summary&level=U13&division=R1&gender=B
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Tom Gass

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2013, 12:43:31 PM »

Just filling in the blanks. MCT B97 is a Rec team from Mukilteo.
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2013, 10:27:20 AM »

Update posted 11/26.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com
* added last two weekends of games
* added top So Cal league to get some more games for the top CAS teams.  But need to add some more tourny data and I have a mistake somewhere for the B95/94 because those look off.

--LP
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lastplanet

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Re: DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2013, 09:18:22 AM »

Update posted 12/4

http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com
* I added a lot of SoCal and NorCal top leagues and tourneys in prep for a comparison of strength of west coast leagues
If you want to look at this see this page
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/ratings.html
I was focusing on the strongest non-WA/OR teams and it's just a sample of teams.  Also more focused on B99 up.

--LP
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lastplanet

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2013, 05:12:02 PM »

Update posted 12/19

http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com

* I added more SoCal and NorCal top leagues and tourneys in prep for a comparison of strength of west coast leagues, which it took me a little longer to update. If you want to look at this see this page
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/ratings.html
* updated the last 2 weekends of league games
* added the BU13 NWCL finals.  I don't have the scores for the others.

--LP
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lastplanet

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2014, 10:33:07 AM »

Update posted 1/6

Boys page:  http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/ratings.html

* Added the PacNW Winter Classic games
* Added first round of Founders games
* Added a few more SoCal and NorCal tourneys
* I still only have the BU13 NWCL finals scores.  Anyone know the scores from some of the others.  Or want to look them up?  They are not on the NWCL page.

--LP
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NKSoccerFan

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #25 on: January 08, 2014, 11:05:50 AM »

Update posted 1/6

Boys page:  http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/ratings.html

* Added the PacNW Winter Classic games
* Added first round of Founders games
* Added a few more SoCal and NorCal tourneys
* I still only have the BU13 NWCL finals scores.  Anyone know the scores from some of the others.  Or want to look them up?  They are not on the NWCL page.

--LP

For the PacNW Winter Classic, I'm not seeing the Premier division games - only the FWRL.  At least in the B97s anyway.

 :drinks:
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lastplanet

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2014, 03:13:33 PM »

For the PacNW Winter Classic, I'm not seeing the Premier division games - only the FWRL.  At least in the B97s anyway.

 :drinks:
ah, indeed.  Will repost shortly.  My code only pulled in those that were listed in the 'Champs' table at the top.
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NKSoccerFan

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2014, 03:24:50 PM »

Yeah, no score posted for the Seattle United B97 Tango vs WPFC B97 White final.   ???

 :drinks:

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Barca

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2014, 06:39:52 PM »

ah, indeed.  Will repost shortly.  My code only pulled in those that were listed in the 'Champs' table at the top.

The requirements document was incomplete.
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lastplanet

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Re: Boys U12-U18 strength ratings
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2014, 10:56:30 AM »

Ok, I reposted with all the 1/3-5 the PacNW Winter Classic games updated.  While at it, I added

* OPL Directors Cup
* NSCAA College Showcase NW (summer)
* Skagit Firecracker U17/18 (summer); somehow missed that
* HSC Invitational
* A couple PSPL relegation games
* Mustang Stampede (summer)

--LP
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