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[Dragon]

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The case for Palin: For McCain, the biggest thing Sarah Palin brings is buzz. It's something the campaign has been seeking for some time. In fact, it has bothered Team McCain that it doesn’t get the same "gee whiz" kind of coverage that Obama gets. Palin changes that discrepancy -- for now. She also helps McCain re-introduce himself as a change-reform candidate. Palin's whole shtick in Alaska is reformer; it's what got her into the governors mansion. Indeed, the Palin pick may signal that the McCain folks have concluded that "experience" as a message isn't a winning one, even though they spent the entire summer developing that argument. So they are hoping Palin helps redefine GOP ticket as change. What's more, she brings a historical first to the McCain campaign. And finally, there's Palin's gender, which the McCain folks hope reopens some of the Clinton-Obama wounds that the Dem convention seemed to heal.

*** The case against Palin. The biggest negative about the pick is that on its face, it looks like a political gimmick, a political calculation. And McCain's supposed to be anything but a calculating or gimmicky pol. Indeed, as the Los Angeles Times wonders, isn’t McCain supposed to be the guy putting “country first” and not playing politics? The fact that McCain doesn't know Palin and spent all but a couple of hours getting to know her before making his pick is going to invite A LOT of judgment criticism. The perception is going to be that McCain panicked and wanted to do something radical to shake up the race. Well, he may have shaken up the race, but at the cost of undermining his best asset: that he was ready to lead. This decision doesn't look like it was well thought out, even as Palin has made a tremendous first impression.

*** The vetting question. Just how well was she vetted? There's going to be a race to define Palin, and while the McCain has bought time by shocking the world with the pick, there's going to be a lot of interest by the press to dig around in Alaska. And this “Troopergate” story is perhaps just the beginning. What's more, since she isn't well know, any little thing could get blown up pretty quickly.